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Randomized clinical trials have been the mainstay of clinical research, but are prohibitively expensive and subject to increasingly difficult patient recruitment. Recently, there is a movement to use real-world data (RWD) from electronic health records, patient registries, claims data and other sources in lieu of or supplementing controlled clinical trials. This process of combining information from diverse sources calls for inference under a Bayesian paradigm. We review some of the currently used methods and a novel non-parametric Bayesian (BNP) method. Carrying out the desired adjustment for differences in patient populations is naturally done with BNP priors that facilitate understanding of and adjustment for population heterogeneities across different data sources. We discuss the particular problem of using RWD to create a synthetic control arm to supplement single-arm treatment only studies. At the core of the proposed approach is the model-based adjustment to achieve equivalent patient populations in the current study and the (adjusted) RWD. This is implemented using common atoms mixture models. The structure of such models greatly simplifies inference. The adjustment for differences in the populations can be reduced to ratios of weights in such mixtures. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Bayesian inference: challenges, perspectives, and prospects’. 

We present an apparatus for detection of cyclotron radiation yielding a frequency-based β  kinetic energy determination in the 5 keV to 2.1 MeV range, characteristic of nuclear β decays. The cyclotron frequency of the radiating β particles in a magnetic field is used to determine the β energy precisely. Our work establishes the foundation to apply the cyclotron radiation emission spectroscopy (CRES) technique, developed by the Project 8 Collaboration, far beyond the 18-keV tritium endpoint region. We report initial measurements of β−’s from 6He and βþ’s from 19Ne decays to demonstrate the broadband response of our detection system and assess potential systematic uncertainties for β spectroscopy over the full (MeV) energy range. To our knowledge, this is the first direct observation of cyclotron radiation from individual highly relativistic β’s in a waveguide. This work establishes the application of CRES to a variety of nuclei, opening its reach to searches for new physics beyond the TeV scale via precision β-decay measurements.